Week 12 Update

Last week I had a 13-3 record, which I'm pretty happy with.  This will be a shorter post than usual since it's been a long day traveling.  I'm just going to list the games and give my predictions without any extra discussion.  Have a good Thanksgiving.  I'll be watching football most of the day:

Green Bay @ Detroit
Oakland @ Dallas
New York Giants @ Denver
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Miami @ Buffalo
Washington @ Philadelphia
Seattle @ St. Louis
Carolina @ New York Jets
Cleveland @ Cincinnati
Indianapolis @ Houston
Kansas City @ San Diego
Jacksonville @ San Francisco
Chicago @ Minnesota
Arizona @ Tennessee
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
New England @ New Orleans

Week 11 Update

Damn.  Last week wasn't so good.  I was 9-6 in predictions and the Cowboys team I was hyping made me look like an ass.  Almost all of my top fantasy stars underperformed as well, and for the first time I lost in all three of my leagues.  Luckily I'm still at the top of my division in two of them.  As for the Cowboys I'm not sure what happened.  I wasn't able to watch the game because I'm in the Seahawks market region and we were served up that boring contest instead.  It wasn't all bad, because I've got a little love left for my old Cardinals home team, but I'm perpetually pissed at Seattle for stealing coverage from good games.  And you better believe I can't afford that NFL fan package bullshit that Direct TV offers.  Anyway, the Cowboys just fell apart.  Maybe they had too much confidence going in, or maybe they are as inconsistent as some believe.  Week 11 marks the end of the bye-weeks, so all teams will be playing every week until the end of the season.

Miami @ Carolina:  With Ronnie Brown out, I'm concerned that the Dolphins' wildcat offense will be less effective.  D'Angelo Williams has been superb the last few weeks and as long as Jake Delhomme can keep the offense moving, I think the Panthers have a better chance of winning.

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City:  The Steelers couldn't get things moving in last week's contest with the Bengals.  Kansas City won't be able to give them anywhere near as rough a time, and Pittsburgh should bounce back.

San Francisco @ Green Bay:  I'm not sure about this game, but the Packers have a better team overall.  If they can stop Frank Gore early, they should win the game.

Cleveland @ Detroit:  Another week, another game with two terrible teams.  Detroit has shown more potential this year, however.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay:  While Tampa Bay appears to be getting better, New Orleans looks almost unstoppable.  Consider them a good Super Bowl contender.  However, if they lose a game in the next couple of weeks, it would be this one.  It's a divisional game, and that's just how these things go.

Atlanta @ New York Giants:  My confidence in Atlanta is waning, especially with Michael Turner likely out for this game.  The Giants have had a week to work out their problems, and they should look much better.

Buffalo @ Jacksonville:  Jacksonville is simply a better team, playing at home.

Washington @ Dallas:  I still have faith in the Cowboys, even though they will be facing a very tough passing defense.  If they stick to fundamentals in this game, they should do well.

Seattle @ Minnesota:  Seattle isn't good, the Vikings are very good.

Indianapolis @ Baltimore:  The Ravens haven't been playing as well lately, and the Colts will be hyped coming off of a barnburner win against the Patriots on sunday night.  That was an amazing 4th quarter.  I stopped watching halfway through the 3rd, but made it back for the last five minutes.  I hate Belichick, so it was nice to see him squirm.

Arizona @ St. Louis:  When will the Cardinals get recognition?  They may come out of nowhere again this year.

New York Jets @ New England:  The Jets are really slumping and the Patriots are good despite what happened last week.

Cincinnati @ Oakland:  Everybody should be officially convinced by now that the Bengals are back to at least their 2007 level of performance.  It will be interesting to see how far they go this year.

San Diego @ Denver:  The Chargers might be back on that latter half of the year explosion.  They've been looking good lately, and even LT is getting involved.

Philadelphia @ Chicago:  The Eagles get a chance to bounce back this week against a Bears team that has been underperforming on all sides of the ball.

Tennessee @ Houston:  Call me crazy, but the Titans are on a roll.  Plus, Houston's backfield is a huge mess right now.

Week 10 Update

Last week my predictions went 11-2, which is nothing to be ashamed of.  As a Cowboys fan, last week was a good one.  People had been doubting whether they could hold up against a team that matched, if not exceeded their skill.  The game was messy, but they outshined the Eagles in a game that placed them at the top of their division.  Still some commentators are refusing to give them due props, claiming the game simply made both teams look sloppy rather than either of them good.  I disagree.  Simply looking at the Cowboys stat line shows a well-oiled offense, at least in the passing game.  Tony Romo had another 300 yards passing and got Roy Williams far more involved in the offense.  If not for the missed interference from Asante Samuels in the end zone, Williams would also have had a touchdown to his name.  November should prove smooth-sailing for this rising offense, but December looks to have some tough games including a couple high stakes divisional matchups.  Let's take a look at the games this week, starting with the season's first Thursday night game:

Chicago @ San Francisco:  The Niners need a comeback and are pretty evenly matched with the Bears.  This is a game they really want, and need to win to stay in the divisional race.  Look for a consistent connection between Alex Smith and Vernon Davis.

Detroit @ Minnesota:  Not much has to be said to justify this pick, but it will be interesting to see how Brett Favre performs coming off an injured groin.

Denver @ Washington:  Denver was beaten handily by the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night, but I have no reason to believe they can't revive their offense against the Redskins.

Atlanta @ Carolina:  The Falcons have shown that they still have a powerful offensive unit, even if their record isn't as good as some expected.  Michael Turner is really starting to break loose again, which is nice.  Like last week, Ryan will be mediocre and Turner will be on fire.

Tampa Bay @ Miami:  Last week was the first time I had gotten to watch the Dolphins this year, and they sure are an enjoyable team to watch.  This game will be full of the Wildcat formation, and they should easily be able to throw off the Tampa defense.

Jacksonville @ New York Jets:  The Jets should be rejuvenated after their bye week.  Look for Thomas Jones to have a big game.

New Orleans @ St. Louis: What a field day for the New Orleans offense.  And defense, for that matter.

Buffalo @ Tennessee:  I've been calling these Titans to the T lately.  They win again with Vince Young in charge, but most of their offense will still be on the ground.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh:  The Steelers have no desire to lose at home to their biggest rivals.  This should be a fun game.

Kansas City @ Oakland:  This is a pretty boring matchup.  Neither team is very good, but the Chiefs are bordering on decent.

Dallas @ Green Bay:  This game happens at least once every year, and it's hard a hard one for me because these are my two favorite teams.  A month ago I probably would have gone with the Packers, but they've lost two straight including one to the formerly winless Bucs.  On the other hand the Cowboys have won four straight and are only looking better.

Seattle @ Arizona:  Kurt Warner doesn't win much at home, but the Seahawks don't win much at all (oooh).  Seattle might not go down easily in this divisional matchup, but the Cardinals are the stronger team by far.

Philadelphia @ San Diego: This game will be a close one, but the Eagles were not impressive last week.  They will force Phillip Rivers to throw the ball, but with Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson performing so well, that's probably for the better anyway.

New England @ Indianapolis: This is the game of the week, and luckily it's one we all get a chance to see.  The Colts have squeezed out only narrow victories against lesser teams in the past couple of weeks, so I don't have faith in them heading into this weekend.  Furthermore, their defense has taken a number of hits, making things easier for Brady and Co.

Baltimore @ Cleveland:  Brady Quinn comes back as quarterback for the Browns, but it probably won't change anything.  Look for a strong connection between Flacco and Mason in the Ravens passing game.

Week 9 Update

Last week wasn't great either, and I went 8-4 because I accidentally looked over the NYJ vs. Miami game. I would have called it right, because the Jets are struggling now midway through the season even with the reemergence of Thomas Jones (which makes me very happy considering I picked him up around the 8th round in two of my fantasy leagues).  There were a few disappointments last week including, for me, the loss of the Packers to the Vikings at Lambeau field.  It was a close one again, showing the strength of the Packers team, but in the end they couldn't pull through.  At this point I'm finally ready to say Brett Favre is back.  He's having an amazing year and at this point the Vikings have shown themselves to be superbowl contenders.  Some of the league's worst teams are on a bye this week, so it makes the matchups a little more interesting.

Washington @ Atlanta:  The Falcons have had a bad stretch but they should be able to prove they're a good team in this game against the Redskins.  Look for Michael Turner to have another good week, and Matt Ryan another mediocre one.

Kansas City @ Jacksonville: in this game between two on and off teams, anything could happen.  However, The Jaguars have had flashes of brilliance at times this season whereas the Chiefs are just getting by.

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay: The Bucs are awful this season.  This game will happen the Packers regain some confidence after last week.

Miami @ New England:  We'll see if the Patriot defense has learned how to handle the Wildcat formation, but New England should be able to win as long as Brady continues to perform well.

Houston @ Indianapolis:  I'm tempted to go with Houston, but it's hard to bet against a team that has gone undefeated this far into the season.  As long as the last game was an anomaly, the Colts should be able to win.

Arizona @ Chicago:  I don't think Kurt Warner is falling apart.  He's known to have games like the one last week but this should be different.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati:  The last game between these two teams came down to the wire.  It may be a similar situation again, but Baltimore should come away with the win.

Carolina @ New Orleans:  I don't think the Saints lose at home to an average team, especially since the New Orleans run defense has been so strong.

Detroit @ Seattle:  Seattle isn't good, but they're better than an injury-plagued Lions team.

Tennessee @ San Francisco:  This game could go either way, but I'm leaning towards the Titans off of the strength of last week's showing.  Plus, the 49ers have been struggling at midseason.

San Diego @ New York Giants: This is an important game for both teams, and could easily be the one that ends up deciding their fates in regards to the playoffs.  I'm taking San Diego on a hunch.

Dallas @ Philadelphia: This huge divisional matchup is the game of the week.  The Cowboys are hot right now, and I think they have the ability to win this game in crunch time.

Pittsburgh @ Denver:  The Steelers have gotten back to performing at a high level on both sides of the ball.  The Steeler defense should be able to sufficiently shut down the offense of the Broncos, while the Steeler offense is too hard to contain.

Week 8 Update

Week 7 was a hard one.  I only went 8-5 with some game results that I found pretty surprising, including a Steelers win over the vikings that I was very happy about.  San Francisco is faltering after a great start, but we'll see if this quarterback switch can get them back on their feet.  There's also been word that Vince Young will be replacing Kerry Collins at QB in Tennessee.  These are some interesting mid-season changes, but nothing entirely unexpected.  What is a little more intriguing is that the Houston Texans should win their third straight against Buffalo this weekend.

Denver @ Baltimore:  The Ravens have gotten really close to beating a couple of undefeated teams, so it won't surprise me if they take the win here at home.  The Denver defense should present a real problem for the passing game, however, so I don't expect a lot of scoring from the Ravens unless they get Ray Rice going early.

Houston @ Buffalo:  The Bills keep accidentally winning, but Houston has been on a roll, defeating a good team last week.  Look for the Houston offense to have a field day here.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia:  The Giants have suffered two straight losses, which is odd for a team that came out of the gate so strong.  On the other hand the Eagles were embarrassed by the Raiders.  Basically, each has the capacity to fall apart at inopportune times.  In this divisional matchup I predict both teams to play very well, but the whole city of Philadelphia is going to be riled up as this game mirrors the world series precisely.

San Francisco @ Indianapolis:  The Colts are able to win again, but it's hard to predict how well the 49ers are able to match them, with a new quarterback leading the offense.

Cleveland @ Chicago:  The Bears have been stumbling, but the Browns are one of the worst teams in the NFL right now.  Look for Chicago to try to regain some confidence with this game.

Seattle @ Dallas:  Dallas is looking good with Miles Austin coming out as the new offensive weapon for Tony Romo.  Seattle is inconsistent and their passing defense is very porous.

St. Louis @ Detroit:  The Lions team is suffering from a number of injuries, but at least they know how to score.

Oakland @ San Diego:  I'd really like to see LT get loose in this game.  The Raiders have a terrible defense and he should be able to exploit it if given the chance.  In any case, the Chargers don't have much to worry about in this game.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee:  The Jaguars have been inconsistent, and I have a feeling Vince Young is going to feel pressured to perform very well against them.  If he can consistently hook up with Nate Washington or Kenny Britt, it should free the running game up a little for Chris Johnson.

Minnesota @ Green Bay:  The Packers almost had the game in their first matchup on Monday night, and they're not looking to let another one slip away, especially at home.  They have been improving consistently to become a very good and well-rounded team.  The Green Bay defense doesn't let Favre have his way this time.

Carolina @ Arizona:  Last week I was the one to underestimate the Cardinals.  They should perform really well in this game.  Jake Delhomme will throw a couple of interceptions, but the Panther running game should have more success.

Atlanta @ New Orleans:  That was a close one for New Orleans, but they managed to rally, which is the mark of a good team.  On the other hand, Atlanta hasn't played as well as many were expecting.

Week 7 Update

I'm a lot cooler with an 11-3 record in predicting last week's games,and I was one of the few who gave the win to the Cards.  I don't understand why people continue to underestimate them.  However, I think they lose this week, but only because they happen to be playing one of the best teams in the NFL currently.  How about the Eagles' loss to the Raiders?  I'm not sure anyone saw that coming, and it's still a little confusing to me.  Those are the kinds of breakdowns the Eagles are prone to from time to time, though.

Indianapolis @ St. Louis: I would not be surprised to see the Colts get back to the super bowl this year.  Almost everything is clicking for them, and even their running game is getting better.

New England Vs. Tampa Bay: The Bucs get embarrassed at Wembley Stadium.  Although is it embarrassing if everybody expects it?  I don't think this will be another blowout provided by the Patriots, but it probably won't be pretty.

Minnesota @ Pittsburgh:  This is a hard choice for me, partly because the Steelers are one of my teams.  But they haven't looked in top shape lately, even though some individuals have been playing exceptionally.  If their defense steps up in this game they might win it.

San Diego @ Kansas City:  San Diego is playing a little better, and this should be an easy win to help them regain some confidence.  Tomlinson also looked a lot better last week, and he should repeat his success this week.  In fact, he needs to for the offense to regain its power.

Green Bay @ Cleveland:  This is an easy win for a Green Bay team that continues to improve.

San Francisco @ Houston:  Houston played well last week, and we will see if they can continue to improve.  I have my doubts.  On the other hand, San Francisco is coming off a bye, and getting Frank Gore back into the lineup.

Buffalo @ Carolina:  The Panthers are getting their running game back and playing against a running defense that allowed over 200 yards to a single rusher last week.  Enough said.

New York Jets @ Oakland:  One of these days I'm going to stop picking the Jets.  I just can't see myself picking the Raiders over them, though.

Atlanta @ Dallas:  This is another hard one to pick, but I'm going to go with my 'Boys.  They're just coming off a bye and have a better all-around offensive attack so far this year.  This is really only because Michael Turner has been unable to fully get going.  They also probably don't want to lose another one at home.

New Orleans @ Miami:  The Saints really look like the real deal this year.

Chicago @ Cincinnati:  The Bears need to win this one, and luckily for them the Bengal defense is hurting.

Arizona @ New York Giants:  This could be a very good game but, barring last week, the Giants have shown themselves to be the superior team this year.

Philadelphia @ Washington:  The Eagles rebound from a shocking loss last week in this divisional matchup.

Week 6 Update

Last week I went 9-5, which again isn't too great, but from what I've seen everybody else called the games pretty poorly too.  There were certainly some surprises: Cinci over Baltimore, and Denver over the Pats for example.  Atlanta was on fire last weekend, and we'll see if they can carry that over to Chicago.  They should be able to, considering the Bears have a far inferior defensive unit.  Here are the match-ups:

Houston @ Cincinnati: The Bengals are a confusing unit, but they've won their last four, and against some good teams too.  Houston has not been playing like a good team, even though I still believe they are.  Their coach simply isn't using the weapons at his disposal.

Detroit @ Green Bay:  Detroit is no longer a terrible team, and they have in fact been scoring quite well.  However, Aaron Rodgers has no problem picking apart their defense.

St. Louis @ Jacksonville:  The Jags are another confusing team.  After a blowout in Seattle, they should be able to come back and take on the Rams.

Baltimore @ Minnesota:  After losing to the Bengals, the Ravens don't look so good.  The Vikings should be able to win, though I still don't believe they are as good as some people are saying.

New York Giants @ New Orleans:  This is the game to watch this week.  Two really good undefeated teams will meet in what should be a fantastic showdown.  It'll be a close one, and either outcome is reasonable.  I pick the Saints based on how well they have played on defense this year.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh:  The browns are still an embarrassment.  The Steelers really have no choice but to win this game by a large margin.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay:  The Bucs are still struggling while the Panthers are coming off of a good win.  Carolina still needs to find better use of their offense, though.

Kansas City @ Washington:  The Redskins are extremely inconsistent, while Kansas City has been getting better.

Philadelphia @ Oakland:  Oh, Oakland.

Arizona @ Seattle:  The Seahawks looked good last week, but I'm not convinced they can keep it up.  Despite the naysayers, I still think Arizona is a good team.

Tennessee @ New England:  The Titans have been unable to get anything going this year.  It's a little disappointing.  The Patriots aren't great, but they're still very good.

Buffalo @ New York Jets:  The Jets get back to winning against a team with poor offerings on both sides of the ball.

Chicago @ Atlanta:  The Falcons played beautifully last weekend.  The Bears don't have enough on defense to make me think they can't have a repeat performance.

Denver @ San Diego:  San Diego has just not been performing well.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a comeback in this game, but I have to go with a Denver team that has been playing very well this season.

Week 5 Update

Last week I went 10-4 in predicting the outcome of the matches in week 4.  I think my heart expected Green Bay and Dallas to play better than they did, but getting almost 75% correct isn't bad.  Let's take a look at this week's matchups:

Cincinnati @ Baltimore:  The Bengals have been playing better than expected, but I still don't really trust them, especially after such a narrow win over the Browns.  On the other hand Joe Flacco has been playing consistently well for the Ravens and he won't have trouble finding holes in the Cinci defense.

Cleveland @ Buffalo:  The Bills played poorly last week, while the Browns played well (for them).  Still, with all the shakeups in the roster at Cleveland recently I don't think they're ready to win one yet.  Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson both have a chance at tearing through the Cleveland D-line.

Washington @ Carolina:  I think the Panthers finally pull out that win.  They're a better team with far more weapons at their disposal.

Pittsburgh @ Detroit:  Detroit hasn't been terrible, and with how poorly the Steeler defense played at the end of Sunday night's game, I could see Detroit's offense scoring a good amount.  But Polomalu should be back to close the gaps this week and the Pittsburgh offense is looking hot again, especially after finding their running game.

Dallas @ Kansas City:  Dallas didn't look great last week, which was a bit of a disappointment.  But really, they have to be able to find success against Kansas City.  Look for Tony Romo to return to form.

Oakland @ New York Giants:  The Giants are looking great.  Oakland wasn't good when they were healthy.

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia:  This is another easy pick as Philly has been performing well, while Tampa really has not.

Minnesota @ St. Louis:  Brett Favre played incredibly well on Monday night.  But even if Sage Rosenfels was in, the Vikings would win this one.

Atlanta @ San Francisco: Both teams are looking pretty good this year and either outcome would be unsurprising.  However, I'm going with a well-rested Atlanta just coming off of a bye.

Houston @ Arizona:  Houston will have to wait to win a game yet again.  I expect the Cardinals to perform well, though they have been relatively inconsistent this year.

New England @ Denver:  I just don't believe that the Broncos are as good as their record would suggest.  The Patriots should provide them with their first loss.

Jacksonville @ Seattle:  At the start of the season I thought Seattle might have a chance to reclaim their division, but I'm definitely rethinking that.  On the other hand, the Jaguars don't look half bad, and David Garrard has been performing well on a pretty consistent basis.


Indianapolis @ Tennessee:  The Colts look great this year, and even their defense is stepping up.  Sadly, I don't think this will be much of a game.

New York Jets @ Miami:  Miami looked good last week while the Jets didn't, but I think the Jets have a better team and Mark Sanchez will be looking to redeem himself.  Maybe Braylon Edwards doesn't drop a pass?

Week 4 Update

The NFL season has been a little crazy so far.  Some teams have defied expectations and risen to present themselves as legitimate challengers, while others with high hopes have been struggling.  A few teams even seem to have already fizzled out.  But that's the kind of unpredictability that annually leads to some exciting stories in the league.  Here's a look ahead at this weekend's games as the first round of byes is underway.

Tampa Bay @ Washington:  It's hard to pick a winner here as both teams have been playing poorly, but I'll take the slightly more balanced Skins over a Bucs team riddled with holes.

Detroit @ Chicago:  This should be an easy win for the Bears as Jay Cutler has settled into the offense nicely.  At least the D won one, right?

Tennessee @ Jacksonville:  I think the Titans might pull this one out, but the safer bet is the Jags at home, with Garrard playing well and MJD on fire last weekend.

Oakland @ Houston:  The Texans win again and Steve Slaton finally has a good game.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland:  The Browns are terrible again, and Cinci looks to have a little bit of a spark.  They win easily.

Seattle @ Indianapolis:  This is a no-brainer, especially with how well the Colts offense has performed as of late.

New York Giants @ Kansas City: The Giants offense is another big surprise this year.  We'll see how long they can maintain it, but the Chiefs should give them no trouble at all.

Baltimore @ New England:  In an upset, the Ravens inch out the Pats, who have yet to "click" this season.

Buffalo @ Miami: The Bills don't look half bad this year, and the Dolphins won't even have Chad Pennington.

New York Jets @ New Orleans:  The Jets are good, but the Saints are better at this point.  Still, this might end up being a good game.

St. Louis @ San Francisco: The Niners have been the surprise of the year for me.  They shouldn't have trouble winning against another poor Rams team.

Dallas @ Denver:  The Denver D came out of nowhere, but the Boys are better than it.  In fact, the Cowboys are far underrated this year.

San Diego @ Pittsburgh:  Both of these teams have been way underperforming.  The Steelers come back from two bad losses on Sunday night.

Green Bay @ Minnesota:  This is the game of the week.  Green Bay comes away with the win in a close one, simply because they have more to prove.

About Time

The football season kicks off tomorrow, and with it the fantasy season.  I consider myself a bit of a football fanatic.  Though I'm sure I couldn't compete with some fans, I think I'm far enough gone to elicit some looks of disapproval.  I played fantasy football for the first time on NFL.com last season, and with a keen eye for sleepers, ended up making it to my league's championship game (where I lost).  My draft wasn't that great, but I had some winning hunches (taking Aaron Rodgers after the 10th round, Desean Jackson, etc.), and I played the waiver wire every week, snatching up rising stars.  Really, a good knowledge of the free agents available was the key to my success in that league.

This year I'm participating in three leagues, and trying out different strategies.  For the first time, I'll be playing with people I semi-know in a league consisting of readers and contributors to The Smoking Section.  Out of all my leagues, I'd like to win this the most, because it includes some high quality bragging rights.  The draft was held earlier today and I fared pretty well.  I decided not to worry about any #1 players, but instead worry about drafting a unit that would be rock solid week in and week out.  I think I did pretty well in that regard, but I got the feeling that this will be another league where playing the waivers may put me over the top.  Only time will tell, but I'll probably continue to do irregular football-related updates in the future.